Prediction of seasonal surge in domestic airfares in India

The good times of low airfares are soon coming to an end. Surge times are ahead of us. This is the seasonal surge that is expected and we can already see the surge fares in the horizon. In order to calculate and predict the exact period of surge, we decided to do look deeper into our airfare database.

We looked into the trend of fare surge that was ahead of us and converted that into percentage points above the lowest observation in this time period to determine the surge %. It should be noted that this is the average of fares observed for the same group of routes that we use to automatically identify an airline offer or discount sale.

What does this signify?

  • The period of high airfares is going to be between 21st September 2017 till 6th November 2017.
  • Notice the surge peaks around Durga Puja (surge: 82%) and Diwali (surge: 112%).
  • If you are planning to travel in this period, just book your ticket at the earliest. You cannot expect a discount sale for this period.
  • In the next 2 weeks (before end of August), we can expect one last airfare sale before the surge begins. But this sale will NOT cover any of the dates which are of high demand as shown in the graph above.
  • Post that fare sale (if it happens), the next expectation of airfare sale will only be around 1st week of October 2017.

We did one more thing. Remember, we told you that the above graph is actually for a group of domestic routes? We know that Durga Puja is approaching and wanted to check how the surges are going to be like for flights to and from Kolkata (you know, just to rub it in!).

As expected, the surge was higher for Durga Puja. But as you can see, Diwali surge for Kolkata isn’t that small either!

In order to help our app users, we will continue to monitor the airfares and recommend/ predict the airfare movements as always in our app: Do share this information with your friends who are planning to travel in this period. If there are any specific routes that you want us to analyze further, do let us know in the comments or tweet to us @Unfare_app.

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